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Research Article


Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia

Morsid Andityas, Dian Meididewi Nuraini, Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra, Yudhi Ratna Nugraheni, Aan Awaludin, Yanita Mutiaraning Viastika, Herlina Yuliani, Joko Prastowo, Sarwo Edy Wibowo.


Abstract
Background:
Bovine theileriosis is a tick-borne disease that can lead to economic losses, including in tropical country such as Indonesia. In some regions of Indonesia, cattle is one of the most important commodities which play a role in the sustaining economic flow, including in Jambi Province.

Aim:
This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial distribution, and to make a prediction trends of the disease up to 2027 in Jambi Province, Indonesia.

Methods:
The retrospective data were obtained from active and passive surveillance of Jambi Province and used for calculating the prevalence, with a total of 6,868 cases recorded between 2018 and 2023. Spatial analysis was conducted using R software (version 4.3.1), while time series forecasting was performed using Python on the Google Colab platform.

Results:
The overall prevalence during the study period was 8.07% (554/6868, 95% CI, 7.42–8.71%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s I statistic resulted in a value of 0.17, with a standard deviation of 1.17 and a p-value of 0.12, indicating that the distribution of cases was random across the province. Forecasting analysis suggested that the prevalence is likely to remain stable through 2027, within a projected range of 0% to 10%.

Conclusion:
The current prevalence of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province is relatively low, but the potential risk of disease introduction and spread from other regions remains. Preventive and control strategies are essential to safeguard cattle health and limit the transmission of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province.

Key words: Bovine; Theileria; Tick-borne disease; Spatial analysis; Time series forecasting.


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Andityas M, Nuraini DM, Saputra DCE, Nugraheni YR, Awaludin A, Viastika YM, Yuliani H, Prastowo J, Wibowo SE. Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Vet. J.. 2025; 15(10): 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23

Web Style

Andityas M, Nuraini DM, Saputra DCE, Nugraheni YR, Awaludin A, Viastika YM, Yuliani H, Prastowo J, Wibowo SE. Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. https://www.openveterinaryjournal.com/?mno=267562 [Access: November 10, 2025]. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Andityas M, Nuraini DM, Saputra DCE, Nugraheni YR, Awaludin A, Viastika YM, Yuliani H, Prastowo J, Wibowo SE. Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Vet. J.. 2025; 15(10): 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Andityas M, Nuraini DM, Saputra DCE, Nugraheni YR, Awaludin A, Viastika YM, Yuliani H, Prastowo J, Wibowo SE. Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Vet. J.. (2025), [cited November 10, 2025]; 15(10): 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


Harvard Style

Andityas, M., Nuraini, . D. M., Saputra, . D. C. E., Nugraheni, . Y. R., Awaludin, . A., Viastika, . Y. M., Yuliani, . H., Prastowo, . J. & Wibowo, . S. E. (2025) Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Vet. J., 15 (10), 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


Turabian Style

Andityas, Morsid, Dian Meididewi Nuraini, Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra, Yudhi Ratna Nugraheni, Aan Awaludin, Yanita Mutiaraning Viastika, Herlina Yuliani, Joko Prastowo, and Sarwo Edy Wibowo. 2025. Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Veterinary Journal, 15 (10), 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


Chicago Style

Andityas, Morsid, Dian Meididewi Nuraini, Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra, Yudhi Ratna Nugraheni, Aan Awaludin, Yanita Mutiaraning Viastika, Herlina Yuliani, Joko Prastowo, and Sarwo Edy Wibowo. "Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia." Open Veterinary Journal 15 (2025), 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Andityas, Morsid, Dian Meididewi Nuraini, Dimas Chaerul Ekty Saputra, Yudhi Ratna Nugraheni, Aan Awaludin, Yanita Mutiaraning Viastika, Herlina Yuliani, Joko Prastowo, and Sarwo Edy Wibowo. "Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia." Open Veterinary Journal 15.10 (2025), 5048-5057. Print. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Andityas, M., Nuraini, . D. M., Saputra, . D. C. E., Nugraheni, . Y. R., Awaludin, . A., Viastika, . Y. M., Yuliani, . H., Prastowo, . J. & Wibowo, . S. E. (2025) Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia. Open Veterinary Journal, 15 (10), 5048-5057. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2025.v15.i10.23


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