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Research Article


Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt

Yumna Elsobky, Mahmoud Eltholth, Ehsan Abdalla, Nourhan Eissa, Ghada Hadad, Mohamed Nayel, Akram Salama, Walid Mousa, Ahmed Kamal, Ashraf M. Abu-Seida, Osama K. Gaidan, Mohamed Elkamshishi.


Abstract
Background:
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI (H5N1) has been endemic in Egypt for almost two decades, profoundly impacting both the poultry industry and public health. Egypt stands as a prominent epicenter for HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Africa, marked by the highest number of positive human cases. Despite continuous governmental efforts, prior research underscored the inadequacy of strategies in controlling the virus spread.

Aim:
This study identified spatiotemporal patterns and high-risk clusters of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks at the subdistrict level.

Methods:
This study involved trial tracking of HPAI H5N1 endemicity dynamics, enabling tailored interventions at a regional level based on robust epidemiological investigations to address the persistent challenge of HPAI H5N1 in Egypt. This study illuminated spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics, with specific attention on Menofia governorate.

Results:
Despite the region's early poultry impacts, initial outbreaks didn’t originate from Menofia in studied epidemic waves. Outbreak risk spatial distribution displayed an escalating pattern at the northern border, followed by risk reduction through the sixth epidemic wave. The predominant hot spot region was localized within rural districts, particularly villages, while urbanization coincided with lower outbreak density. Observed smoothed densities revealed epidemic propagation within urban centers, preceding its transition to new areas and establishing direct connections with neighboring cities. Primary cluster prognostication was plausible, occurring in regions previously hosting elevated relative risk clusters during preceding epidemic waves. Identification of enduring pinpoint clusters, persistent for extended durations, indicated close contact dynamics and localized viral circulation within populations.

Conclusion:
This study highlights the significance of customized regional interventions based on the rigorous epidemiological framework. This approach is pivotal in the profound comprehension of endemicity dynamics, efficiently limits geographical infection spread, and contains outbreaks within delineated areas.

Key words: Endemicity dynamics, Highly pathogenic avian influenza, Risk clusters, Spatiotemporal dynamics, Tailored intervention strategies


 
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How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Elsobky Y, Eltholth M, Abdalla E, Eissa N, Hadad G, Nayel M, Salama A, Mousa W, Kamal A, Abu-Seida AM, Gaidan OK, Elkamshishi M. Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Vet J. 2024; 14(11): 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20

Web Style

Elsobky Y, Eltholth M, Abdalla E, Eissa N, Hadad G, Nayel M, Salama A, Mousa W, Kamal A, Abu-Seida AM, Gaidan OK, Elkamshishi M. Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. https://www.openveterinaryjournal.com/?mno=215642 [Access: December 06, 2024]. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Elsobky Y, Eltholth M, Abdalla E, Eissa N, Hadad G, Nayel M, Salama A, Mousa W, Kamal A, Abu-Seida AM, Gaidan OK, Elkamshishi M. Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Vet J. 2024; 14(11): 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Elsobky Y, Eltholth M, Abdalla E, Eissa N, Hadad G, Nayel M, Salama A, Mousa W, Kamal A, Abu-Seida AM, Gaidan OK, Elkamshishi M. Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Vet J. (2024), [cited December 06, 2024]; 14(11): 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


Harvard Style

Elsobky, Y., Eltholth, . M., Abdalla, . E., Eissa, . N., Hadad, . G., Nayel, . M., Salama, . A., Mousa, . W., Kamal, . A., Abu-Seida, . A. M., Gaidan, . O. K. & Elkamshishi, . M. (2024) Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Vet J, 14 (11), 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


Turabian Style

Elsobky, Yumna, Mahmoud Eltholth, Ehsan Abdalla, Nourhan Eissa, Ghada Hadad, Mohamed Nayel, Akram Salama, Walid Mousa, Ahmed Kamal, Ashraf M. Abu-Seida, Osama K. Gaidan, and Mohamed Elkamshishi. 2024. Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Veterinary Journal, 14 (11), 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


Chicago Style

Elsobky, Yumna, Mahmoud Eltholth, Ehsan Abdalla, Nourhan Eissa, Ghada Hadad, Mohamed Nayel, Akram Salama, Walid Mousa, Ahmed Kamal, Ashraf M. Abu-Seida, Osama K. Gaidan, and Mohamed Elkamshishi. "Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt." Open Veterinary Journal 14 (2024), 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Elsobky, Yumna, Mahmoud Eltholth, Ehsan Abdalla, Nourhan Eissa, Ghada Hadad, Mohamed Nayel, Akram Salama, Walid Mousa, Ahmed Kamal, Ashraf M. Abu-Seida, Osama K. Gaidan, and Mohamed Elkamshishi. "Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt." Open Veterinary Journal 14.11 (2024), 2911-2923. Print. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Elsobky, Y., Eltholth, . M., Abdalla, . E., Eissa, . N., Hadad, . G., Nayel, . M., Salama, . A., Mousa, . W., Kamal, . A., Abu-Seida, . A. M., Gaidan, . O. K. & Elkamshishi, . M. (2024) Spatio-temporal dynamics and risk cluster analysis of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) in poultry: Advancing outbreak management through customized regional strategies in Egypt. Open Veterinary Journal, 14 (11), 2911-2923. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i11.20


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